We use machine learning and time-series forecasting to scale in the following domains:

• RETAIL – For retail demand forecasting.

• INVENTORY PLANNING – For supply chain and inventory planning

• WORK FORCE – For work force planning

• WEB TRAFFIC – For estimating future web traffic

• METRICS – For forecasting metrics, such as revenue and cash flow

• CUSTOM – For all other types of time-series forecasting

Amazon Forecast Models

• CNN-QR – Amazon Forecast CNN-QR, Convolutional Neural Network – Quantile Regression, is a proprietary machine learning algorithm for forecasting time series using causal convolutional neural networks (CNNs). CNN-QR works best with large datasets containing hundreds of time series. It accepts item metadata, and is the only Forecast algorithm that accepts related time series data without future values. 

• DeepAR+ – Amazon Forecast DeepAR+ is a proprietary machine learning algorithm for forecasting time series using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). DeepAR+ works best with large datasets containing hundreds of feature time series. The algorithm accepts forward-looking related time series and item metadata. 

• Prophet – Prophet is a time series forecasting algorithm based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality. It works best with time series with strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. 

• NPTS – The Amazon Forecast Non-Parametric Time Series (NPTS) proprietary algorithm is a scalable, probabilistic baseline forecaster. NPTS is especially useful when working with sparse or intermittent time series. Forecast provides four algorithm variants: Standard NPTS, Seasonal NPTS, Climatological Forecaster, and Seasonal Climatological Forecaster. 

• ARIMA – Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a commonly used statistical algorithm for time-series forecasting. The algorithm is especially useful for simple datasets with under 100 time series. 

• ETS – Exponential Smoothing (ETS) is a commonly used statistical algorithm for time-series forecasting. The algorithm is especially useful for simple datasets with under 100 time series, and datasets with seasonality patterns. ETS computes a weighted average over all observations in the time series dataset as its prediction, with exponentially decreasing weights over time. 

 

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